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James Harden is about to be on the move.
Again.
For roughly the umpteenth time.
Harden is picking up his $35.6 million player option for next season and intends to work with the Philadelphia 76ers to find a trade destination, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. The L.A. Clippers are expected to be heavily involved, per Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes. Woj adds the New York Knicks as an interested party, as well.
What could packages from these three teams look like? Should anyone else join the fracas? Is The Beard trying to suit up for all 30 teams before he retires?
You know the drill. It’s time to cobble together some hypothetical Harden trades.
Choosing the Right James Harden Destination 101
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This is a great time to note that Harden may not return as much as some Sixers fans hope he will or believe he should.
He has plenty of leverage in this situation. He could have just opted out, hit free agency and left for nothing.
Opting in suggests Philadelphia just wants to fold his outgoing salary into something, anything, and doesn’t necessarily expect a blockbuster return. Destinations will be limited to prospective contenders we could envision him wanting to join, and packages will be assembled relative to the uniqueness of these circumstances.
Notable Omission
The Houston Rockets will not be part of this shindig. Harden is in part only traveling down this path because his former team has moved off reunion aspirations, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
And now, on to the speculation machine!
James Harden to the Miami Heat
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Philadelphia 76ers Receive: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Lowry, 2024 first-round swap, 2027 first-round pick, 2029 first-round pick
Miami Heat Receive: James Harden
Are the Heat prepared to stop waiting for Damian Lillard in favor of Harden overtures? The Athletic’s Shams Charania says yes.
Is Harden a good match for #HeatCulture? And Jimmy Butler’s practice regimen?
To be honest, your answer’s as good as mine. But Miami is operating on the most urgent of timelines after making the NBA Finals. The acquisition of any star who can level up the half-court offense and spacing needs to be under consideration.
Landing Harden is safer for the Heat than most other teams. They have the ability to insulate him defensively with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, and head coach Erik Spoelstra’s offensive stratagems are adaptable as hell.
Cobbling together the right package gets thorny. This basically amounts to a one-year placeholder and first-round equity for the Sixers. They’d be mega flexible when Lowry, a Philadelphia native and Villanova alum, comes off the books next summer. But going this route far from optimizes the Joel Embiid timeline—unless they have other deals lined up.
Philly can push for Tyler Herro’s inclusion. Whether that’s the right call is debatable.
Herro is only 23 and provides plenty of off-the-bounce shot-making, but he starts a four-year, $130 million extension next season ($120 million guaranteed). Can he be a permanent match alongside Tyrese Maxey, particularly when both will be on huge-money deals in 2024-25? Failing the inclusion of a third team that places a premium on Herro’s services, prioritizing the longer-term flexibility of Lowry opens more avenues in Philly.
James Harden to the Knicks
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Philadelphia 76ers Receive: R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Jericho Sims, 2024 first-round pick (most favorable of Dallas and New York), 2026 first-round pick (top-10 protection)
New York Knicks Receive: James Harden
Harden and the Knicks are a questionable fit. The same goes for New York and Philly as trade partners.
The Knicks shouldn’t be moving Jalen Brunson, and having him, Harden and Julius Randle in the same rotation is all sorts of wonky. But the Sixers won’t be tripping over themselves to create a Randle-Joel Embiid frontcourt, which is also wonky.
This feels like the middle ground. New York doesn’t need Barrett nearly as much with Harden coming in, and it gets to retain Quentin Grimes, who’s suddenly more essential on defense. Quickley is the most painful asset to give up from the balance of this package, but there’s no way he’s a deal-breaker. His salary will spike after next season, and he, too, becomes somewhat redundant with Brunson and Harden in the rotation and (likely) heavily staggered.
Reuniting Quickley and Tyrese Maxey in Philadelphia would be fun. (They played together for a year at Kentucky.) Neither stands taller than 6’3″, but IQ is aggressive enough on defense for the Sixers to try playing them together. Both are due for massive raises in 2024-25, and it’s not clear whether they’re a match long term. But the Sixers can look at rerouting IQ later, or they can let both hit restricted free agency, work with their smaller cap holds and try to aim for another seismic addition.
Barrett’s inclusion is non-negotiable. Philly needs another player with size who can operate on-ball. Things could get cramped in the half-court with Barrett and Embiid, but RJ has shown enough in the Knicks’ bench-heavy units to wonder whether they could mesh as a pick-and-roll duo.
Sims is a nice reserve 5 option, even if the Sixers wind up keeping Paul Reed. The number of picks and their protections here are negotiable.
James Harden to the Clippers, Version 1
Terance Mann throws a pass around Tobias HarrisRonald Martinez/Getty Images
Philadelphia 76ers Receive: Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Terance Mann
L.A. Clippers Receive: James Harden
A soon-to-be 34-year-old Harden should not be viewed as a superstar substitute by the Clippers, if we’re being honest. Lower body injuries have mounted since he left Houston. You’re not getting definitively more durable. You target Harden to amplify the Paul George and Kawhi Leonard pairing and deepen your half-court creation, not to break up your current star duo.
L.A. might quibble over including Mann, a plug-and-play wing who can shoulder some ball-handling. He’s only 26 and set to begin a bargain-bin two-year, $22 million extension. But you have to give up something in this scenario, and Mann becomes less critical, on offense, when bringing in the high-usage Harden.
The Clippers can negotiate including Marcus Morris Sr.’s expiring deal over Batum’s. Personally, I wouldn’t budge if I’m the Sixers. You’re already selling low without getting a first-rounder—L.A. can flip up to two firsts in 2028 and 2030—and Batum fills more of the ball-handling void left by Harden. Mann is a fantastic fit, at both ends, and a Covington reunion shores up secondary minutes at both the 4 and 5.
Philly gains some flexibility, too. This opens a plausible path to spending the bigger mid-level and continuing to flesh out the roster around Embiid. Taking on two expiring deals and Mann’s cheapo contract also raises the possibility of creating cap space in 2024 if the Sixers are prepared to let Tyrese Maxey become a restricted free agent rather than extend his deal this fall.
James Harden to the Clippers, Version 2
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Philadelphia 76ers Receive: Robert Covington, Paul George, Marcus Morris Sr.
L.A. Clippers Receive: Tobias Harris, James Harden
Replacing Harden with George is an absolute win for the Sixers. Especially if the former was leaving anyway.
George is slightly younger, having just turned 33, with fewer playoff nadirs to his name. Philadelphia forfeits table-setting and some self-creation, but it has Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton and the mid-level (Bruce Brown?) to help offset the deficit. The Sixers defense will be better off with George checking rival perimeter stars, and his bandwidth to work both on- and off-ball while playing at different cadences could feasibly spice up what is, right now, a potent-yet-not-so-dynamic offense.
This deal is a little harder to grapple with from the Clippers’ side. Harden juices up their half-court creation and passing, but the defensive infrastructure loses luster.
Keeping Mann here, unlike in Version 1, is huge. Ditto for the acquisition of Harris. He’s become a punchline because of his salary ($39.2 million), which is stupid. He has just one year left on his megadeal, and combo forwards who shoot high clips from three (38.9 percent since 2017-18) without submarining your defense are hardly dime a dozen.
L.A.’s side is infinitely more palatable if George has expressed a desire to leave. He has a player option for 2024-25 worth $48.9 million but is extension eligible now. If he’s delivered a pay-me-or-trade-me ultimatum, the Clippers can do muuuch worse than bagging an All-NBA point guard without surrendering any first-rounders or Mann.
James Harden to the Clippers, Version 3
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Philadelphia 76ers Receive: Robert Covington, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris Sr.
L.A. Clippers Receive: Tobias Harris, James Harden
We are going to have an uncomfortable discussion.
Let’s say you’re running the Clippers. You’re dead set on getting Harden. It’s going to cost one of your superstar wings. You get to choose which. Who are you sending out?
Paul George will be the reflexive response for many. Leonard may be the actually correct answer.
That feels blasphemous on the surface. Leonard just proved, yet again, that he’s a top-five talent when healthy. But “when healthy” is doing an awful lot of lifting if you project him to sustain that status. Kawhi has cleared 2,000 total regular-season minutes just once since 2016-17, and he just had another knee surgery after tearing his right meniscus.
At 32 years old, with so many leg injuries in his rear view and a new contract on the horizon (2024-25 player option), are we sure the Clippers consider him part of their future in this scenario? They probably do. But if they’re in on Harden, it’s worth a discussion.
Philly could technically have more pause in this scenario. Reuniting Kawhi with head coach Nick Nurse is tantalizing. They won a championship together in Toronto. And the Leonard-Joel Embiid partnership would be defensive hellfire. Times infinity.
Still, the Sixers have to be sure Leonard is prepared to stay beyond next season. And, yeah, they’d need to feel pretty good about his chances of remaining somewhat healthy over the medium term, too.
Other Potential James Harden Destinations
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Boston Celtics
The Celtics can satisfy salary-matching requirements for Harden without including Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. That’s pretty intriguing. It’s also absurdly risky.
Boston is already testing the limits of its defensive versatility after jettisoning Marcus Smart. Bringing in Harden pushes those boundaries even further. The Celtics’ prospective candidacy also rests on the Sixers 1) dealing him within the same division and 2) accepting an offer built around some combination of Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, Kristaps Porziņģis and picks.
Golden State Warriors
Would Chris Paul, a smaller salary and one or two first-round picks get the Sixers thinking? Would the Warriors even consider it?
Harden does more than CP3 to elevate the non-Stephen Curry minutes. He could also be a more prickly fit within Golden State’s core lineups given his even-more-limited-than-CP3 utility off the ball. Or he could be a superior fit because he’s bigger than CP3.
Who the hell knows? I don’t love this for either side, but the Warriors may need more self-creation sauce than Paul provides. Plus, a Harden-for-CP3 swap is objectively hilarious